Public Claim and Prediction Register
Public DAEPOLIS records become claims, evidence objects, falsifiers, prediction commitments, pattern observations, and later corrections. This register is the accountability surface.
Verifier Queue
June 2026 commitments carry an explicit resolver plan before their windows mature. These rows are not outcomes; they are the public checklist for official evidence, owner, status, Brier eligibility, and post-resolution notes.
Queue state
Register Map
Source briefs are shown as navigable families so a crowded ledger reads as portfolios of commitments rather than one long spreadsheet.
Commitment Register
Dense rows keep each forecast, timing, falsifier, commitment hash, and outcome scannable. Expand a row to inspect the verification chain behind the conclusion.
Claim → Evidence → Source
Public claims show their proof state separately from prose. Live retrieval proves URL availability and excerpt containment, never claim truth; unresolved gaps stay visible.
Aggregate Calibration
Qualitative trigger validations remain visible in the register but stay out of Brier aggregation.
Selection-rate denominator unavailable.
No category-level resolutions yet.
Canonical Claims
Claims that can be cited, updated, contradicted, or superseded across analyses.
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Decisive Unknowns
Observations that would materially move a judgement. These are monitored unknowns, not scored forecasts.
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Scenario Premortems
Present-tense observations that would make a high-probability scenario failure obvious before the outcome arrives. These are not scored forecasts.
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Pattern Observations
Named patterns that accumulate across the ledger, with recent context preserved for review.
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